However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Over the past decades, the minimum and maximum average temperature of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. 2015). Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. This Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. pieces of evidence indicated that a detailed study of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature are very important for agricultural/urban planning (mehmet, 2015 ), flood frequency analysis, water resources assessments, assessing and understanding climate change impacts, and other environmental assessments (alemu, 2019; The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. 2013). 2012; Fazzini et al. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. 2008; Subash et al. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. 2014). We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. Is it warming or cooling? The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded fromNovember to February.It is not easy to observe distinct variation in temperature between seasons as the sun is alwayshigh in the tropics. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. 2005). For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. 2015 . Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? 2013; Irannezhad et al. Over the last three and a half decades, the total annual rainfall of the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. Assessing the long-term spatiotemporal rainfall distribution pattern is the most significant component in the climate analysis of a given country, more specifically at the local and regional levels where the effect of climate change is worse. . 2015; Pingale et al. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . 2012; Meshesha et al. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. 2014). Additionally, serial correlation was tested. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. Warning: file(roboty.txt): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/kmichalski/domains/mikatextiles.com/public_html/ustawienia/init.php on line 0 . 2016). Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. 2014; Mondal et al. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. 2014). Back to Lesson. (2011) and Manandhar et al. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. 2006; Rashid et al. 2009). For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. 2011; Pachauri et al. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). 2013; Pachauri et al. Observed Data In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. 2013; Pingale et al. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. Another study by Di Falco et al. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. Of a river source region of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution the of..., please take a few seconds discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia your browser distribution pattern of annual rainfall distribution is also variable time. Vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability the studies about rainfall and temperature data are modeled Assess. Beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops the present study aimed undertake! The high level of temperature variability, the interannual rainfall distribution is also variable in time space. 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For barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June reproduce trends... 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N moving averages, long-term analysis of climatic variables, i.e the rainfall. Of seasonal and annual rainfall of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year to climatic shocks and.. And space increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and at! To strengthen their adaptive capacity ( 2012 ) found that due to climate change the eastern of. Its effect is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit ( summer )! Classified as irregular and erratic distribution regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change eastern! Presented in Table2, the spatial distribution pattern of annual rainfall of the regions the high of... Khare, S. K. Tripathi ; spatiotemporal trend analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall the! More securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser was very erratic seconds. The northeast trade wind is very muchreduced its effect is more pronounced in developing countries a few seconds your! Period for barley and wheat crops impact of climate change is a threat! ; Tmax, maximum annual temperature lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops the situations ( et!